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June 16, 2022

When she turned 21, Lilibet proclaimed, “I declare before you all that my whole life whether it be long or short shall be devoted to your service and the service of our great imperial family to
which we all belong.” Elizabeth Alexandra Mary Windsor (Lilibet to her family) was pronounced, Elizabeth II, by the Grace of God, of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and of her other realms and territories Queen, Head of the Commonwealth, Defender of the Faith on February 6, 1952.

The Queen’s Platinum Jubilee (70 years) culminated in a four-day holiday this June. The celebration included parades, galas, and sporting events. As you would expect many people closest to her Majesty shared thoughts and stories of admiration and appreciation, none better than the one Royal Protection Officer, Richard Griffin shared. 1Griffin shared a story about he and the Queen encountering some American hikers one day while they were walking around the grounds of Balmoral Castle, her holiday home in Scotland.

“There were two hikers coming towards us, and the Queen would always stop and say hello, and it was clear from the moment we first stopped they hadn’t recognized the Queen.

One of the Americans began telling the Queen where they came from and what sites they had seen in Great Britain. Then he asked the Queen where she lived.

She said, ‘Well I live in London, but I’ve got a holiday home just on the other side of the hill.’ Then he said, ‘How often have you been coming up here?’

When the Queen told the American, she had been coming up to Balmoral Castle for over 80 years, the hiker asked if she had ever met Queen Elizabeth.

The Queen, referring to me, responded, ‘Well I haven’t, but he meets her regularly.’

The hiker then turned to me and asked: ‘Oh, you’ve met the Queen? What’s she like?’

Oh, she can be very cantankerous at times, but she’s got a lovely sense of humor.

The American then put his arm around my shoulder, got his camera out, and gave it to the Queen, asking if she could snap a picture of him with the Royal Protection Officer.

Anyway, we swapped places and I took a picture of them with the Queen, and we never let on and we waved goodbye, and Her Majesty said to me, ‘I’d love to be a fly on the wall when he shows those photographs to their friends in America — and hopefully someone tells him who I am.’”

Silly Americans! It is hard to conceive, someone not recognizing one of the most recognizable people in the world. They knew of the Queen, were in the neighborhood where the Queen owned a castle, but they were not expecting to see the Queen of Great Britain meandering down the street.

As markets continue to wobble, we know opportunity exists, we know we are in the neighborhood of opportunity, but often times with opportunity and fear standing right in front of us, we choose to have our picture made with fear.

A primary piece of research we utilize in determining the level of risk (opportunity and fear) in a market or sector is the Bullish Percent (BP). Research firm, Dorsey Wright & Associates2 defines the Bullish Percent as a measure of the percent of stocks in a given universe that are in demand. The higher the more individual stocks that are in demand, the more risk in the market or sector.

Think about the market BP this way… imagine someone with the last name Wallenda traversing the Grand Canyon on a wire with no safety equipment, then imagine a toddler walking across a balance beam that is 6 inches off the lawn.

It’s not that Mr. Wallenda is going to make it across, and the toddler is not or that the toddler is, and Wallenda is not. It is the consequences of not being successful that create the risk. When the market BP is above 70% and rising, we start feeling like a Wallenda, when it is 30% or below, we feel like a fearless toddler surrounded by soft green grass.

As I write, the S&P 500 Bullish Percent sits at 12.40%3. I do not know, nor does anyone else, what markets will do one minute from now or one year from now, but we do know there is more opportunity today than there was a few months ago.

Please let me know if you would like to discuss the English Monarchy, Bullish Percent, or anything else on your mind.

-DC


1 Queen plays prank on Americans. Sourced from – https://www.insider.com/queen-once-played-prank-on-american-tourists-2022-6
2 Dorsey Wright & Associates is an independent technical research firm focused on Point & Figure Analysis.
3 S&P 500 Bullish Percent. Sourced from – https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX